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Tad "To dazzle when the Sun is down, and rob the world of rest" Cook,K7RA, this week reports: For several weeks we expected today, May 2, to have active geomagnetic conditions. For instance, if you look at a forecast from April 23, it shows an expected planetary A index for May 1-3 of 10, 20 and 15.

The next day, April 24, this changed to 8, 20 and 15, and on April 25 it was 10, 15 and 15. For May 1, we see the actual planetary A index for that day was 9, and for the following two days, the predicted values are 10 and 12, which are much more moderate. So obviously as we moved closer to this date, the return of a solar wind stream seemed less likely, although earlier today the planetary K index rose as high as 4, indicating unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Sunspot numbers for April 24-30 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 1.6. The 10.7 cm flux was 70.4, 69.8, 69, 68.1, 68.5, 68.6 and 67 with a mean of 68.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 8, 10, 10, 11, 8 and 9 with a mean of 10.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 13, 7, 5, 7, 9, 4 and 4, with a mean of 7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. To read this week's Solar Report in its entirety, check out the W1AW Propagation Bulletin page http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.

(Reprinted from the ARRL Bulletin)